Note: The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the WUL.
If you’re not careful, you will get lost in the City of Love.
Bonsoir mes petits haineux. We are coming to you live from the IVe arrondissement, where 17℃ feels sarcastically warmer than our usual whereabouts in Southern California. Our expert roundtable is leisurely making its way from underneath Notre-Dame’s arcboutants (don’t touch that, Nicole!) and onto the Pont d'Arcole. On our left, a couple, conjoined at the hip, whispering sweet nothings in the universal language of l’amour. She giggles, he smiles, the embrace tightens. On our right, the non-atmospheric river that engulfed the muse of Impressionnisme: la Seine.
We are only a 5-minute vėlo ride to the Louvre, but that is not our destination. We are headed to le Marais, the heart of medieval Paris, because we are très faim. We pass on the Michelin star Benoit - the escargot is a tad damp - and continue due north on Rue Saint-Martin. We find a nondescript door at the intersection with Rue de la Verriere and swing it open, praying that it’s not, in fact, an unsuspecting Parisian family’s home. To our relief, the stench is overwhelming - we made it. Readers, our experts have traversed the globe to dine at the only place that still serves the traditional meal of the Gauls.
Tonight, we are eating crow.
Recap
The only expert who did not join our escapade to Paris is Helen. That is because Helen killed it with her predictions. The only thing she got wrong was that SF won by 6, not by 8. She is not worthy of the crow.
Everyone else, shame on you. Kenny digs in first (starts with the face) with an incredible 0-3 prediction record. Ange and Nicole are next (may I suggest the wing?), with one correct prediction between them. Me? I love crow. I’m ordering the beak dessert.
This week, we have an exciting new expert who can tell us a little about Utah: Michael Aguilar.
Michael Aguilar (he/him) is a co-head coach of the Utah Wild. He owes all his success in life to his wife Kendall. You can find him on Twitter @aguilar_eua and Instagram @justfathering.
Question for March 16th, 2023:
Who should be the most worried about losing: Astra, Onyx, Tempest, or Super Bloom? That is, for which team was this weekend just a bump in the road in an otherwise successful season, and for which was it an accurate precursor of more losing down the road? Is Arizona for real, or did they get lucky? Finally, who you got: Colorado or Utah?
Who Should Be Worried?
Nicole: I'd say Onyx and Super Bloom have nothing to worry about. They had close games, not on their home field, and played well despite missing some significant pieces of their roster. Astra, on the other hand, as much as I hate to say it, should worry. They got beat by their own lack of chemistry, despite some amazing plays by a lot of their players. Do I have hope their chemistry will build throughout the season? Absolutely. This is going to take some really hard work on Astra's part, though. But I believe in this team, and I know how hard they work and how much they want to win. And if anything, this loss just lit a fire under their bellies. Go Astra! I believe in you.
Bobby: I'm not truly worried about any one team's outlook, yet. The first weekend is such a huge shock of workload, nerves, playtesting strategies, player groupings, and finding your "stall 7" feet. I'll answer the question with my own team, Oregon Onyx, since we have the most losses in the league now. An 0-2 weekend on the road in week one, both really close games, and both filled with very fixable errors, does not have me deeply concerned. That said, there is definitely a heavier weight that we will have to shoulder in the rest of our games, since the season isn't too long.
Michael: Onyx has to be the most concerned about its losses this weekend. Not because they are indicative of some larger problem talent or skill-wise (we know that Oregon has plenty of both) but because it's TWO losses. The fact of the matter is that Oregon is 1/4 through its season and has no wins to show for it. With the WUL showing some solid parity across the league, Oregon is now in a position where it cannot afford many more missteps (if any!). I have no doubt that it's an organization that can play with its back against a wall, and with two losses in week one, it now has to.
Bryce: Who should be worried the most? Anyone who spent any time wringing their hands about “sustained growth” and “competitive balance” just a few weeks ago (Editor’s note: thank you.). Which team should be worried the most? Onyx. Dropping two on the road, especially two games by a total of three points, could prove to be the difference in a tight playoff race later this season.
Ange: No one should be worried. It has been TEN months since anyone played a WUL game. Everyone has new players, sets, and systems. No. One. Panic.
Kenny: Astra has got some problems. The blowout scoreline doesn't even tell the whole story. This game was 10-4 for San Francisco early in the second half. I hope that LA's team just got a case of the drops, but suddenly it's at the bottom of the Southwest division behind a star-studded San Diego. The Falcons' win is a warning that these four divisional teams will be at each other's throats all season long. The last thing LA wants is to be considered the easiest win in the Southwest, but it's landed itself right in that discussion.
Ben: Astra should be the most worried, simply because of standings math. Losing a home conference game means they are now likely going to need to beat either Arizona or San Diego twice, win the rematch at San Francisco, and do better than the Falcons in their out-of-conference games to make the playoffs. That seems like a tall order.
Pawel: Honte à Los Angeles. Une très mauvaise performance dans des conditions très favorables. C'était pire que Les Bleus au Mondial 2002.
Is Arizona for real?
Nicole: Arizona, is, in fact, for real. (It's a real place, I've been there.) They didn't just get lucky, they played extremely well and made big plays. Even though I don't think they'll win as easily at away games, I do think they'll continue to give other teams hell. My initial prediction was wrong, thank you for making me eat my words.
Bobby: I have no reason to think that anything I saw from Arizona was a fluke this weekend. All of their success came from repeatable actions, and every team had some low points that are fixable moving forward. Their roster is balanced, they clearly have playmakers, and they have good energy. They'll have to find that success on the road now, but again, I think it's all repeatable. I am stoked about how this league's season has started overall, and can't wait to see how everyone responds after this opening weekend.
Michael: Last season Arizona showed that if you combine high-level athleticism with a cohesive team system, then you can play elite ultimate. For some reason, in the offseason, a lot of folks seemed to forget that simple formula. The Sidewinders did not. Arizona made solid adjustments throughout both of its games and handled pressure in late-game situations extremely well. I expect this weekend is more of a display of Arizona's baseline level of play than an aberration.
Bryce: Is AZ for real? Why are we even asking? Yes, their red zone conversion rate will need to improve quickly. And Onyx zone introduced some concerns for their O-line. But they were the best team on the field, on both sides of the disc, through large stretches of the weekend. A team with that many explosive playmakers (my goodness, Kez Gesell) is going places. They consistently won individual matchups in the backfield and on the openside unders. It's not much, but it's honest work. They've got a lot of season left, but what a start for the Sidewinders. Is it too early to start hoping for a Tempest-Sidewinders rematch during championship weekend semis?
Kenny: The Sidewinders' first point against Seattle says it all. They pull the disc to the reigning champs, then spend the next seven minutes of game time grinding on defense before breaking for the first point of the game. They came out like a firecracker. They're hungry. I apologize for my prediction that they'd go 0 for 2 because they earned these wins. If they had dropped either of their games, it'd be easier to question the quality of their roster. But they came out over two days and knocked off first reigning runner-up San Diego, then gave Seattle their first-ever WUL loss (Editor’s note: Seattle lost games at the Winter Cup). With only six remaining games in the regular season, I see a lot of scenarios that enable Arizona to stay at the top of the Southwest.
Ben: Arizona is for real. Specifically, the pressure they apply on defense is as real as it gets. Adding athletes like Kez Gesell and Paige Applegate has been huge, but another key ingredient was Megan Maxfield, who has absolutely leveled up this season. There was a point in the Seattle game that was a great snapshot of the Sidewinder’s relentless defense: with the score tied 3 to 3, they played straight-up force flick person defense the whole way down the field and forced the Tempest to throw 23 passes, none of which gained more than 15 yards, before forcing a turnover in the endzone. Maxfield was tasked with guarding Sam Rodenberg, one of the league's best cutters, and let her touch the disc once - this coming one day after dominating the Onyx to the tune of four blocks in one quarter. The offense was shaky at times, and replacing the production of Jade McLaughlin, LP Aragon, and others for a full season will not be easy, but a deep, athletic defense can take you a long way in ultimate, and the Sidewinders have one.
Ange: Arizona did not get lucky. What they did get is a significantly better offensive system that works for their VERY fast receivers and savvy throwers. But if they don't think Super Bloom's D line is coming to capitalize on their offensive turnovers, they've got another thing coming.
Pawel: L'avantage du terrain est réel. C'était le meilleur week-end de l'Arizona, mais je ne m'attends pas à ce qu'il dure. Je suis toujours sceptique.
Utah or Colorado?
Michael: Utah
Bryce: Big Sky, Big Love. Sko Wild.
Nicole: On the one hand, you got all the ex-Sidewinders that made their season so successful last year: Aubree Dietrich, Jade McLaughlin, and Marilyn Reich. But on the other hand: Jen Cogburn, Paige Kercher, Cori (Cori Bigham), Kayak (Kyra Khoroujnikova). Okay, but Colorado doesn't have many Molly Brown players? But they do have a lot of young talent. But then again, this is a Utah home game, and we all know home games tend to favor the home team. I honestly have no idea who's going to win. I would love to see Colorado win their first game ever, but I can't root against Cori and Kayak. I think these teams are super evenly matched, and I hope for my sake (and all of ours) that it's a very close game that leaves us on the edge of our seats. I just want everyone on both teams to have fun.
(Editor’s note: she wanted everyone to eat her words last week. How the turn tables.)
Kenny: Colorado will meet their match against Utah. The Wild is reloaded for 2022 with some significant improvements both in terms of roster adds and player development. Everyone who has been following the Utah player community for the past five years is excited about a few things. First, some college-level talent has finally matured enough for the big stage. Second, the team now boasts several returning national club champs. And finally, the Wild has a secret weapon no one outside of Utah is talking about. (Editor’s note: ?????)
Ben: Utah is better than their record showed last year, and there’s no way to tell how a brand-new team will play together. But, a line with McLaughlin, Dietrich, and Reed is gonna put up numbers. Give me the Alpenglow.
Ange: My money is on Colorado this weekend, mainly because I'm a big fan (and former teammate) of Coach Stephanie "Shaq" Schlosser. I think they'll hit the ground running...fast! Also, their kits are NICE. Look good, feel good, play-er - good?
Pawel: Je vous salue, Marie pleine de grâce; le Seigneur est avec vous. Vous êtes bénie entre toutes les femmes et Jésus, le fruit de vos entrailles, est béni. Sainte Marie, Mère de Dieu, priez pour nous pauvres bisons, maintenant et à l’heure de notre mort.
